How Canada can qualify for World Cup in Qatar: Explaining eventualities for CanMNT in 2022

Canada has certified for only one FIFA males’s World Cup within the nation’s historical past, however that’s set to vary forward of the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.

Les Rouges are main the ultimate spherical of CONCACAF World Cup qualifying by 4 factors with three matches remaining, and there’s a actual risk that Canada might qualify for its first World Cup since 1986. It is only one win away from clinching one in every of three direct berths.

Canada must wait till March to clinch a World Cup berth. A win in Costa Rica on March 24 would have Canada mathematically clear of 5 different groups and guaranteed of a top-three end and a ticket to Qatar.

MORE: How lengthy is Alphonso Davies out for Canada?

CONCACAF World Cup qualifying standings

Under are the present standings within the race to qualify for the 2022 World Cup from the CONCACAF area. 

1.* Canada 25 11 7 0 4 19 5 +14
2.* USA 21 11 6 2 3 16 7 +9
3.* Mexico 21 11 6 2 3 14 8 +6
4.* Panama 17 11 5 4 2 14 13 +1
5. Costa Rica 16 11 4 3 4 8 7 +1
6. El Salvador 9 11 2 6 3 6 13 -7
7. Jamaica (E) 7 11 1 6 4 9 16 -7
8. Honduras (E) 3 11 0 8 3 5 22 -17

*The highest three groups earn direct berths to Qatar 2022, whereas fourth place will head to an intercontinental playoff in opposition to a nation from Oceania. Eradicated groups famous with an (E).

Canada World Cup qualifying schedule & outcomes

Under is the complete listing of Canada’s previous outcomes and upcoming matches within the quest for 2022 World Cup qualification. 

Date Match Time (ET) TV / Stream
Sept. 2, 2021 Canada 1, Honduras 1   Highlights
Sept. 5, 2021 USA 1, Canada 1   Highlights
Sept. 8, 2021 Canada 3, El Salvador 0   Highlights
Oct. 7, 2021 Mexico 1, Canada 1   Highlights
Oct. 10, 2021 Jamaica 0, Canada 0   Highlights
Oct. 13, 2021 Canada 4, Panama 1   Highlights
Nov. 12, 2021 Canada 1, Costa Rica 0   Highlights
Nov. 16, 2021 Canada 2, Mexico 1   Highlights
Jan. 27, 2022 Honduras 0, Canada 2   Highlights
Jan. 30, 2022 Canada 2, USA 0   Highlights
Feb. 2, 2022 El Salvador 0, Canada 2   Highlights
Mar. 24, 2022 Costa Rica vs. Canada TBD  
Mar. 27, 2022 Canada vs. Jamaica TBD  
Mar. 30, 2022 Panama vs. Canada TBD  

What number of factors to qualify for the World Cup?

If we’re utilizing previous regional World Cup qualifying cycles for historic comparisons, we have to use the factors per sport metric (PPG), since there have been solely 10 matches performed within the CONCACAF remaining spherical in previous cycles (in comparison with the 14 on the calendar within the lead-up to Qatar 2022).

Whereas the variety of matches was totally different, the highest three spots nonetheless certified instantly to every World Cup match listed under (factors per sport of every certified staff indicated in daring). And because the 2006 World Cup, the fourth-place staff superior to a playoff in opposition to a nation from one other area.

The desk under outlines the factors per sport (PPG) for every standings place since 1998 and the present PPG for every staff in 2022 qualifying.

Qualifying 1st 2nd third 4th fifth sixth seventh eighth
1998 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.6
2002 2.3 1.7 1.7 1.4 0.8 0.5
2006 2.2 2.2 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.2
2010 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.6 0.8 0.6
2014 2.2 1.8 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.5
2018 2.1 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.2 0.6
2022* 2.3 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.5 0.8 0.6 0.3

Canada qualifying outcomes projection

Canada has 25 factors with three matches remaining (2.3 factors per sport). So it’s effectively inside attain of the minimal 1.8-1.9 points-per-game vary (25-27 factors) it ought to want to qualify with out presumably breaking a sweat, although it should wish to ensure there isn’t any drama throughout the March slate of matches.

MORE: Which groups have certified for the 2022 World Cup?

We took a stab at projecting outcomes for the ultimate three matches, taking a much less favorable set of outcomes to search out the minimal required to comfortably qualify. Canada is presently undefeated in first place, but it surely solely has one house sport remaining in its remaining three (vs. Jamaica on March 27) with two street journeys to Central America developing (in Costa Rica and Panama).

The much less favorable set of outcomes consists of two away losses in these street matches at Panama and Costa Rica. The ensuing projected complete of 28 factors (and a 2.0 points-per-game mark) must be greater than sufficient to qualify. Because of its nine-point winter haul, Canada has loads of room for error.  

Match Date Opponent / Outcome PPG
12 Thursday March 24, 2022 Canada @ Costa Rica (Loss) 2.0
13 Sunday March 27, 2022 Canada vs. Jamaica (Win) 2.2
14 Wednesday March 30, 2022 Canada @ Panama (Loss) 2.0

When may Canada safe World Cup qualification?

With three matches remaining within the qualification cycle (9 accessible factors) and an eight-point lead on fourth place, Les Rouges are on the cusp and with yet one more win, it should get the job achieved. If Canada doens’t clinch on March 24, the schedule units up for the March 27 house match in opposition to Jamaica to be a World Cup celebration like Canada hasn’t seen in generations.

Canada is unbeaten in 11 matches, with seven wins, together with six in a row. The capability to safe outcomes on the street has been key. They picked up two street wins (in Honduras and El Salvador) and attracts on the street in opposition to the USA, Mexico and Jamaica. Add these to a 5W-0L-1D house document, together with a well-known 2-1 house win over Mexico and the 2-0 win over the USA, and the factors have come in bunches.

MORE: How the World Cup intercontinental playoffs work

At this level Canadian followers shall be greater than content material that the staff controls its personal future heading into the ultimate set of qualifiers with the head-to-heads in opposition to the USA and Mexico formally out of the way in which.

CONCACAF standings tiebreakers

There’s at all times a risk that the CONCACAF standings are additional tight and that Canada is tied on factors with a number of of the different nations within the qualifying standings. Tiebreakers would come into play.

Listed here are the standings tiebreakers for groups even on factors:

  1. Objective distinction in all group matches
  2. Most targets scored in all group matches
  3. Most factors obtained from group matches between groups involved
  4. Objective distinction from group matches between groups involved
  5. Most targets scored in group matches between groups involved
  6. Targets scored away from house (if two groups are tied)
  7. Self-discipline factors (primarily based on yellow/crimson playing cards)
  8. Drawing of heaps by FIFA

The Qatar World Cup shall be performed from Nov. 21 to Dec. 18, 2022.

Supply hyperlink

Leave a Comment